Home sales in the Fraser Valley increased for the first time in five months, following a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada in October. The next Bank of Canada meeting will be held on December 11th. It is expected there will be another rate cut and that the goal is to have the overnight lending rate come down to 2.75% by the end of 2025.
Fraser Valley Home Sales, All Property Types
Home sales surged by 35% from September and 37% year-over-year—a promising sign that buyers are responding to these rate cuts
Canada Home Sales Activity
Looking at all of Canada, Canadian MLS® Systems recorded a 7.7% increase in home sales activity on a month-over-month basis in October 2024. This marked the highest level since April 2022
As we move forward it’s clear that buyers are once again entering the market. With mortgage rates expected to fall, consumer confidence is on the rise. The 2025 real estate market should see a large increase in home sales volume after after the slow sales seen in 2024.
Given the big jump in preliminary home sales reported by various metros, the official data from CREA this morning confirmed a 7.7% surge in seasonally adjusted sales nationally last month. The gain drove a massive 15.3% increase in BC—the largest monthly increase since the summer of 2020. Ontario also saw a hefty 8.9% gain.
October’s strong sales numbers across Canada suggest buyers have been in the market since rates began to fall in early summer. However, they were waiting for the right property to come up for sale, which didn’t happen in a big way until September.
Rates
On Wednesday, October 23, The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight lending rate from 4.25% to 3.75%. The cut was widely expected by financial markets. This marked the Bank’s fourth rate reduction since the onset of the pandemic and the biggest reduction in Canada’s key lending rate since March 2020.
Deeply discounted mortgage rates have remained steady over the past few weeks despite significant volatility in the bond market.
The dotted line below shows the Bank of Canada’s projected overnight lending rate. Currently, we have a lending rate of 3.75%, and economists believe the rate needs to drop to around 3%.
Absorption (Market Type)
After dipping into a buyer’s market last month, the Fraser Valley real estate market has shifted back into a balanced market. This means we’re now seeing a more even playing field for both buyers and sellers—great news for everyone involved!
A sales-to-active ratio of 1-12% is a Buyers market. 12-20% is a balanced market. Anything that is 20% or greater, is a sellers market. Last month, we moved from buyers market into a balanced market for all property types in the Fraser Valley.
Months of Inventory
Looking at all of Canada, there were 3.7 months of inventory nationally at the end of October. This is down from 4.1 months at the end of September and the lowest level in more than a year. The long-term average is 5.1 months of inventory
Seasonally adjusted, we see that Months of Inventory across Canada is sitting just under 4 months. This falls into Balanced-Buyer market territory. This calculation measures the absorption rate (active listings divided by the number of sales in a given month). The trend is moving downward toward balanced-to-seller market territory. This means the market will slightly favour sellers, not buyers
